Exploration is a business!
This is a commentary on the US shale revolution, by a participant: “Geology is a science. Geophysics is a science. Exploration is a Business”
Given that, where do we go from here, what happens next?
This quotation is usually attributed to Albert Einstein: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result!”
…’..so let’s agree that a lot has to change?
Here are a few ideas:
Short-term (2-3 years)
Based on what the Majors appear to be saying, the focus will be on:
• Existing provinces, many of them offshore
• Exploiting discovered, or extremely low risk accumulations
• Closeness to Infrastructure
• Short times to 1st Oil/Gas
We might call this “Infrastructure-Led Exploration” but a more honest term might be “Infrastructure-Led Exploitation” or even “Infrastructure-Controlled Exploitation”……………which will not work for everyone.
And so…..
Longer-term (4+ years)
I predict that some companies (Majors) and NOCs will need new resources/reserves, requiring:
• New Ideas
• Low Cost Oil (we don’t need any more Gas!)
• Not Deep Water, not Arctic
• Onshore
• “Regional” approach
We might call this “Regional-scale Exploration”
How to do “Infrastructure-Controlled Exploitation”?
• Geoscientists as part of Exploitation team(s)
• Low overheads, low G&A; exploit cost leverage
• Technology Innovation:
>Multi-component seismic; 4D when producing
>Machine Learning (applied to subsurface interpretation)
>Production Analytics
How to do “regional-scale Exploration”?
• Low overheads (especially Executive management!)
• Low G&A; exploit outsourcing
• Portfolio of opportunities (not just one play!)
• Technology Innovation:
>Satellites
>UAVs (manned aircraft only if no alternative!)
>“Boots on the ground”*
>Wireless seismic
>Integration: seeps, gravity (FTG), “The Rocks”*, seismic (preferably 3D)
*I mean the ‘classics’ = stratigraphy, sedimentology, structural geology, geochemistry, petrophysics
This quotation is usually attributed to Albert Einstein: “Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result!”
…’..so let’s agree that a lot has to change?
Here are a few ideas:
Short-term (2-3 years)
Based on what the Majors appear to be saying, the focus will be on:
• Existing provinces, many of them offshore
• Exploiting discovered, or extremely low risk accumulations
• Closeness to Infrastructure
• Short times to 1st Oil/Gas
We might call this “Infrastructure-Led Exploration” but a more honest term might be “Infrastructure-Led Exploitation” or even “Infrastructure-Controlled Exploitation”……………which will not work for everyone.
And so…..
Longer-term (4+ years)
I predict that some companies (Majors) and NOCs will need new resources/reserves, requiring:
• New Ideas
• Low Cost Oil (we don’t need any more Gas!)
• Not Deep Water, not Arctic
• Onshore
• “Regional” approach
We might call this “Regional-scale Exploration”
How to do “Infrastructure-Controlled Exploitation”?
• Geoscientists as part of Exploitation team(s)
• Low overheads, low G&A; exploit cost leverage
• Technology Innovation:
>Multi-component seismic; 4D when producing
>Machine Learning (applied to subsurface interpretation)
>Production Analytics
How to do “regional-scale Exploration”?
• Low overheads (especially Executive management!)
• Low G&A; exploit outsourcing
• Portfolio of opportunities (not just one play!)
• Technology Innovation:
>Satellites
>UAVs (manned aircraft only if no alternative!)
>“Boots on the ground”*
>Wireless seismic
>Integration: seeps, gravity (FTG), “The Rocks”*, seismic (preferably 3D)
*I mean the ‘classics’ = stratigraphy, sedimentology, structural geology, geochemistry, petrophysics
