Wednesday 22 March 2017

Using Analytics


I have previously expressed my scepticism about how some of the “big data” learnings from other industries can be applied in oil & gas and I confess that I still need paracetamol for my headache when one of the behemoths of the world, or even of our industry, addresses the topic!

However, listening to some smaller companies with regard to the application of their software to subsurface applications, I have seen 4 or 5 different levels of insight:

1. Optimising a particular technology’s impact on production.

2. Figuring out which technology has the most impact on production.

3. Noting that in mature provinces recovery factors vary significantly between reservoir intervals, analysing what it is that most drives recovery factors.

4. Recognising what drives the production “sweet spots” in a basin.

5. And finally, concerning ‘prediction’ as opposed to ‘retrospection’. My thought is that we used geophysics, especially 3D seismic, to become predictive with respect to Deep Water reservoirs – but it took a long time (15 years, and lots of the Majors got there at roughly the same time). I think we can do a lot more with the combination of 3D seismic + logs + core + fluid analyses but at the moment this tends to produce ‘clouds of points’ - which cry out for the type of multi-variate analysis some can deliver.

Beyond this, I have encountered small companies that are using Analytics on for example:

Satellite data – many more satellites up there every day, with an increasing range and diversity of sensors: present all sorts of opportunities including onshore geology!

Simulation – the ability to simulate everything in a city (I heard about a virtual Singapore the other day) to undertaking ‘what ifs’ with North Sea infrastructure.

Multi-physics – how to integrate masses of satellite data, non-seismic geophysics, seismic, ‘rock hammering’.

Just my observations!

Understand your reservoir!


Some of you may have already browsed the OGA’s five year review of (UKCS) major oil and gas projects.

It is a sobering read, chronicling the various mishaps that beset 58 major projects executed between 2011 and 2016. On average:

·         fewer than 25% of projects were delivered on time (average of 10 months delay), and

·         projects were 35% over budget compared to estimates made in Field Development Plans.

In shape, these conclusions are similar to those of IPA in reviewing ~250 global FPSO projects.

QED: In the UKCS, and globally, major development performance is pretty miserable, with misses on 1st Oil/Gas timing and/or budget and/or production delivery, sometimes all three.
The IPA study pointed to under-appraisal, that is, lack of understanding of the reservoir, its geometry and dynamic characteristics, as a key driver of poor project performance – in essence many folk designed the wrong production facilities.

The future of the UKCS relies in good part on the successful development of marginal discoveries – see OGA’s recent review. These leave no room at all for error and so getting your understanding of your reservoir spot on will be absolutely key.

In my humble opinion, our prediction, description and understanding of reservoir geometries, rock physical properties and dynamic performance remains weak – “could do better” would be written on our school reports. During the appraisal stage I think we can do a lot more with the combination of 3D seismic + logs + core + fluid analyses than we do and, as production develops, a lot more with 4D seismic/permanent reservoir monitoring and down-hole technologies.